Friday, November 24, 2006

Global Warming - An Alternative Viewpoint

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened" Sir Winston Churchill.

There is no doubt in my mind that there are significant externalities associated with the consumption of fossil fuels. At the same time, unlike some (see for example http://www.energybulletin.net/3322.html), I am convinced that we are far away from reaching Hubbard's peak in oil production. This I say having observed for the last three years monthly data on exploration, production and above all production costs and prices of oil and gas (see Canadian Energy Research Institute's Commodity Report – Crude Oil and Commodity Report – Natural Gas at http://www.ceri.ca/#Commodityreport).

Above all I remain a skeptic about the size of the anthropogenic influence on global warming. The model developed by Nir Shaviv (see http://www.sciencebits.com/CO2orSolar) and recently (partly) tested at CERN suggests that the major source of influence on the earth's temperature is solar activity. This alternative view, if true, has major repercussions for Kyoto type policies. Indeed, the vast amounts of resources that we are devoting to reducing CO2, could be usefully devoted to other income generating activities.


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